TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS USING LOGISTIC REGRESSION IN FORMATIVE EFFECTIVE VARIABLES AND PREVENTIVE MEASURES

Abstract

This research was conducted to determine the important influential variables upon the deaths from road traffic accidents and effect of each of those upon the studied phenomenon through applying logistic regression model. The maximum likelihood method was used to estimate parameters to determine the explanatory variables effect. Wald test was used to determine the significance of the explanatory variables. The data set used in this research consists of a sample of (212) observations and was obtained from the records of the directorate traffic- Garmian. The accident victims is response variable in this study and it is a dichotomous variable with two categories. The study led to a number of conclusions, among them; logistic regression models fit such data, three explanatory variables were found most significantly associated to accident victims response variable namely; high speed, car type, and location. Road accidents are one of the main causes of deaths worldwide. About half a million people are killed in road related crashes every year throughout the world. The probability of an accident occurring is influenced by numerous factors like roadway geometric characteristics, vehicle characteristics, pavement conditions and weather conditions each of these factors contribute its own share towards occurrence of accidents. This paper discusses the influence of various factors on accident caution based on statistical package Regression Analysis collected from the most accident prone stretch, Ayalurmetta to Thammarajupalli (30KM) in Andhra Pradesh on NH18 and from the results of the analysis, it can be concluded that this National Highway section needs improvement from safety point of view. A large number of accidents have been occurring over such a small section of 15 km length. Proper traffic guidance and control system to guide road users ensuring safe movement of vehicles has been recommended and some of the facilities such as pedestrian crossings and median openings, acceleration and deceleration lanes were re-designed in order to improve the safety of the road and minimize the accidents.